The ledger
The track record.
Every thesis this briefing has taken, the probabilities it assigned, and how the scorecard graded them. No cherry-picking — the misses stay on the page.
2editions scored
—scorecard hit rate
0graded calls
bearish 1, neutral 1thesis stances
| Edition | Thesis | Scenario odds | Scorecard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 23 Midday edition |
Bearish (50%). The 5.13% print is now the fact on the ground, and the afternoon setup is self-reinforcing: higher yields punish duration, the Nasdaq's record highs invite profit-taking, and every dip buyer has to fight t… Bearish | Bullish 20% · Bearish 50% · Neutral 30% | not yet graded |
| Sep 23 Morning edition |
Neutral (45%). The tape is coiled, not broken — every wire move this week has resolved in favor of the diplomacy trade, but with the summit one sleep away, the market's job today is to hold position, not to extend. Bulli… Neutral | Bullish 30% · Bearish 25% · Neutral 45% | not yet graded |
The scorecard hit rate counts individual graded calls in each edition's scorecard, not editions. The evening edition grades the morning thesis; stances with no graded calls yet are marked ungraded. How the grading works.
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